Hi everyone, I’m financial blogger Cedric. Today, we’ve witnessed a historic moment—gold futures surged past 3,000/ozforthefirsttime! As of March14, COMEX gold hitarecord high of 3,000/oz for the first time! As of March14, COMEX gold hita record high of 3,017.1, while London spot gold approached $3,000. What’s driving this rally? How long can it last? Here’s my analysis.

1. Three Key Drivers of the Gold Rally

(1) Geopolitical Risks & “Trump Tariff Threats”
The U.S. government imposed 25% tariffs on EU steel/aluminum on March 13, with threats of 200% tariffs on French wine, sparking global trade war fears. Trump’s promise of “larger tariff lists in April” further fueled uncertainty, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

(2) Fed Rate Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness
U.S. February CPI cooled to 2.8% YoY, with core CPI at 3.1%—the lowest since April 2021. This boosted market bets on a June Fed rate cut (82% probability), while the dollar index fell below , amplifying gold’s appeal.

(3) Central Bank Gold-Buying Spree
Global central banks bought 18 tons of gold in January 2025, with China’s reserves up 58 tons over four months (5.2% of FX reserves). Emerging markets like Turkey and India accelerated “de-dollarization,” lifting gold’s strategic role.

2. Future Outlook: How High Can Gold Go?

• Bullish Case: Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 target to 3,100,withpotentialspikesto3,100,withpotentialspikesto3,500 if geopolitics worsen. Macquarie predicts $3,500 in Q2, citing tariff-driven inflation.
• Cautionary Notes: Morgan Stanley warns of a pullback to $2,800 if Fed delays cuts or trade talks progress. Technicals show overbought RSI (82), hinting at short-term profit-taking.

3. Strategies for Retail Investors

(1) Avoid Chasing Highs, Buy on Dips
With gold at all-time highs, consider staggered entries in the 2,800−2,800−2,900 range via a “pyramid strategy”.

(2) Optimal Investment Vehicles

• Gold ETFs (e.g., HuaAn Gold ETF): High liquidity, low fees.
• Bank Gold Accumulation Plans: Ideal for long-term holdings, avoiding physical gold’s high premiums.
• A-Share Gold Stocks: Leaders like Shandong Gold (PE 18-22x) trade below global peers.

Gold’s $3,000 milestone reflects both market frenzy and a reshaping of global trust in fiat currencies. While long-term trends favor gold as a hedge against dollar risks, short-term turbulence demands cautious strategy. Stay disciplined, stay diversified.

(3) Stay Alert to Volatility
Post-breakout volatility is likely. Monitor Fed policy, U.S.-EU trade talks, and geopolitical risks